Economic data and banks’ stress test brightens outlook

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Equity markets are steady despite early swings and jitters over concern about inflation, geopolitical risks and economic health. Dow Jones, which has lagged other major indices in performance for the year, rose decisively for the trading day as it was lifted by banks’ earnings and robust economic data.

The economy remains on track for a soft landing.

If a recession does happen, the economy is likely to have a mild recession, given a strong performance in GDP. Indeed, the first quarter GDP was revised upward. Likewise, initial jobless claims came in lesser than economists’ expectations.

Nvidia fever continues despite the possible export ban

Analysts continued to plough into Nvidia’s camp despite a potential export ban of chips produced by the company as concerned over using such technology in terrorism and perhaps subtly to tame China’s chip technology ambition.

Still, the warm reception of the stocks has not fully deterred investors from buying the low. There is growing optimism that the AI wave is more than sufficient to cushion any policy impact on the company’s revenue.

What’s on the menu today?

8.30 pm : Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, Personal Income,
9.45 pm : Chicago PMI,
10 pm : Michigan Consumer Expectations.

The key highlight is the PCE Price Index, the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge. If a reading is higher than expected, combined with the showing of strong economic data, the Fed might be boldened to increase interest rate hikes.

It is 30 June, Friday, 8.50 am in Singapore and 8.50 pm in New York. It is the final trading day of the week and the quarter as we wrap up the first half of 2023. We hope you guys have a safe trading day and look forward to seeing you at our trading channel.