🎙FOMC Minutes in Focus🔭

Most Fed officials are seeing a slowing inflation and a possible peak in the federal funds rate this year, according to the latest FOMC minutes. Without any surprise, they reinforce that incoming data will guide their future FOMC rate decisions, 

Yet, the current FOMC minutes are due after the hot January jobs and the firm retail sales data. Hence, analysts are now pricing for a higher fed-fund rate this year. Most Fed officials welcome the move to moderate the interest rate hike to better assess the following economic data. 

Nonetheless, most are still uncomfortable with the sticky inflation scenario, emphasising the need to do more to help tame inflation. Hence, we shall seek confirmation on incoming data before making big moves. 

💰Nvidia: Earnings beat, and stocks rose🍏

Earnings came in above estimates, and the management sees a rosy future from the prospects of AI services. The big news was the outlook above the midpoint of Wall Street’s estimate. 

Investors cheered on the guidance, which sent Nasdaq to rise sharply after an hour. In this episode, I suffered a loss on the prospect of possible options assignment due to some short call options. This is a painful lesson and a good reminder for all friends to close their options even if there is a forsee degree of safety net to account for possible large after-hour swings, especially during earnings season.

Although it happens after after-hour, it is still possible for the assignment of options, and this will erode considerable gains. So learn from my mistake and hope you will gain more too!

📖What are our dishes today? 📮

At 9.30 pm, we will have the data for GDP for Q4. We expect the growth to remain similar at 2.9%. The figure is vital for assessing if a soft landing is possible. Also, if the figure is too strong, it may stir inflation fear again. So, do watch out for the data. 

Likewise, Initial Jobless Claims are expected to climb modestly to 200K. A strong labour market may hint at underlying solid inflation too. 

At 11.50 pm, we will have FOMC member Bostic speaking, and that could once again shake the market.